poniedziałek, 18 lutego 2013

Coin flip - would you let it decide your future?

They say it's better to regret something you have done, than to regret something you haven't. Have you ever made a decision based on this principle? I have to admit that I have and the result turned out to be suprisingly good. On the other hand, however, I have my doubts about having a go at everything I ever think of. It might turn out to change my life forever not in a necessarily favourable way, so I better not take too many of my chances. 



If you look up "decision making" in Wikipedia you will get quite a lenghty article and the followind decision making mechanisms. Which of those have you tried, do you have a favourite?

Decision making processes according to Wikipedia:


1. listing the pros and cons
2. simple priotization, deciding which aspect is your priority and making the decision on its basis
3. Elimination by aspect: you choose a single aspect of the decision and make it according to this and this only
4. prayer
5. visionary dream
6. tarot and astrology
7. consult an expert, authority figure who knows better than you.

and more...

I suppose everyone had to use at least 2 of this processes in making everyday decision. Have you tried tarot and astrology? How did it work out for you...I haven't because I don't really believe in them, however, I decided to pass my future to a coin flip. Why did I do it? A podcast convinced me. As a matter of fact, I liked it so much I wanted to share it with you. Check it out and tell me if you are willing to do the same.


The guys that do the podcast have also written this book...and some others too, and made a movie...they pretty much ROCK!

http://www.freakonomics.com/2013/01/31/would-you-let-a-coin-toss-decide-your-future-a-new-freakonomics-radio-podcast-3/

Here are some questions for you to consider while listening:
  1.   Who is Daniel Herrington. What used to be his job? What is his job now?
  2.   Was Daniel happy about his previos job? Did he set the world on fire?
  3.   What was the ultimate trigger for Daniel to change his job (what was the final reason)
  4.   Does Daniel describe himself as a decisive person? How does he usually make decisions for trivial matters?
  5.  Does Daniel expect to stay at his current job for a long time?
  6. Levit and Dubner made a podcast episode  called “The Upside of Quitting”. What turned out to be the consequence of that podcast?
  7. Are both of the hosts equally enthusiastic about the forecoming experiment?
  8. What does the freakonomics experiment involve?
  9. How do they lead the decision makers through their decision making process?
  10. Who is encouraged to take part in the experiment?
  11. The Freakonomics experiment flips the coin for you. How do they check whether they have made the right decision? Do the decision makers have time to change their minds?

The podcast includes the transcript right after the description. Make sure you read along as you listen. I have a feeling you might learn lots of useful decision making vocabulary there.

Here is a list of words that I found interesting (in the order of appeareance):
  1.        Day-to-day basis
  2.       Hands-on
  3.       Flip a coin
  4.        Rock-paper-scissors
  5.     To come up with
  6.     Stakes are high/low
  7.      Spouse
  8.    To bring something up
  9.     Stun
  10.    To prompt
  11.    It got me thinking
  12.     Framework
  13.   Walk someone through
  14.   To fill out a survey
  15.   Conduct a research
  16.    To figure something out
  17.    To be on the brink
  18.    To entertain a big decision
  19.    We’ll take everything
  20.   To throw up (hands)
  21.    Shred of (common sense)
  22.    Common sense
  23.    Brazen idea
  24.    There’s a better way of putting that
  25.  To commit to/to commit
  26.   Fret about st
  27.   Random/randomize
  28.    Hijinks
  29. The die is cast
  30.  To be tied up in knots
  31.   To elicit = to trigger
  32.    Perplex
  33.    Virtue
  34.   Make a pledge
  35.    Swag
  36.    Heck
  37.    Demented
  38.    To occur
  39.    To encounter
  40.  To go down the moral ladder
  41.    Exploitative
  42.    Embezzle
  43.    Short of
  44.    Fair-game
  45.   To harm
  46.    Status quo bias
  47.    To be better-off
  48.    To distinguish
  49.    Casual effect
  50.   Correlation and casualty
  51.    To go viral
  52.    Wishy-washy



last but not LEAST : the website where YOU can also take part in this experiment:
https://www.freakonomicsexperiments.com/